pacman::p_load(olsrr, ggstatsplot, ggpubr,
sf, spdep, GWmodel, tmap,
tidyverse, gtsummary, performance,
see, sfdep)In-class Exercise 7: Calibrating Hedonic Pricing Model for Private Highrise Property with GWR Method
1 Getting started
1.1 Import R packages
First we import the relevant packages using p_load() of pacman.
1.2 Import the Data
1.2.1 URA Master Plan 2014 planning subzone boundary
mpsz = st_read(dsn = "data/geospatial", layer = "MP14_SUBZONE_WEB_PL") |>
st_transform(3414)Reading layer `MP14_SUBZONE_WEB_PL' from data source
`C:\thuphuong1110\ISSS626-GAA\In-class_Ex\In-class_Ex07\data\geospatial'
using driver `ESRI Shapefile'
Simple feature collection with 323 features and 15 fields
Geometry type: MULTIPOLYGON
Dimension: XY
Bounding box: xmin: 2667.538 ymin: 15748.72 xmax: 56396.44 ymax: 50256.33
Projected CRS: SVY211.2.2 Condo Resale Data
First we read in the csv file on condo resale pricing and other variables.
condo_resale = read_csv("data/aspatial/Condo_resale_2015.csv")Rows: 1436 Columns: 23
── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Delimiter: ","
dbl (23): LATITUDE, LONGITUDE, POSTCODE, SELLING_PRICE, AREA_SQM, AGE, PROX_...
ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.Next we convert the tible dataframe into an sf dataframe
condo_resale.sf <- st_as_sf(condo_resale,
coords = c("LONGITUDE", "LATITUDE"),
crs=4326) %>%
st_transform(crs=3414)We save the data into rds file format.
write_rds(condo_resale.sf, "data/rds/condo_resale_sf.rds")The below code chunk reads the data from rds file.
condo_resale_sf <- read_rds(
"data/rds/condo_resale_sf.rds")2 Correlation Analysis - ggstatsplot methods
Instead of using corrplot package, ggcorrmat() of ggstatsplot can also be used to plot the correlation matrix as in below code chunk.
ggcorrmat(condo_resale[,5:23])
3 Build a Hedonic Pricing Model using Multiple Linear Regression Method
The code chunk below uses lm() to calibrate a multiple linear regression model.
condo_mlr <- lm(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM +
AGE + PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE +
PROX_ELDERLYCARE + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA +
PROX_HAWKER_MARKET + PROX_KINDERGARTEN +
PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH +
PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL +
PROX_SUPERMARKET + PROX_BUS_STOP +
NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY +
FREEHOLD + LEASEHOLD_99YR,
data=condo_resale_sf)
summary(condo_mlr)
Call:
lm(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE +
PROX_ELDERLYCARE + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + PROX_HAWKER_MARKET +
PROX_KINDERGARTEN + PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH +
PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_SUPERMARKET +
PROX_BUS_STOP + NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD +
LEASEHOLD_99YR, data = condo_resale_sf)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-3471036 -286903 -22426 239412 12254549
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 543071.4 136210.9 3.987 7.03e-05 ***
AREA_SQM 12688.7 370.1 34.283 < 2e-16 ***
AGE -24566.0 2766.0 -8.881 < 2e-16 ***
PROX_CBD -78122.0 6791.4 -11.503 < 2e-16 ***
PROX_CHILDCARE -333219.0 111020.3 -3.001 0.002734 **
PROX_ELDERLYCARE 170950.0 42110.8 4.060 5.19e-05 ***
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA 38507.6 12523.7 3.075 0.002147 **
PROX_HAWKER_MARKET 23801.2 29299.9 0.812 0.416739
PROX_KINDERGARTEN 144098.0 82738.7 1.742 0.081795 .
PROX_MRT -322775.9 58528.1 -5.515 4.14e-08 ***
PROX_PARK 564487.9 66563.0 8.481 < 2e-16 ***
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH 186170.5 65515.2 2.842 0.004553 **
PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH -477.1 20598.0 -0.023 0.981525
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL -207721.5 42855.5 -4.847 1.39e-06 ***
PROX_SUPERMARKET -48074.7 77145.3 -0.623 0.533273
PROX_BUS_STOP 675755.0 138552.0 4.877 1.20e-06 ***
NO_Of_UNITS -216.2 90.3 -2.394 0.016797 *
FAMILY_FRIENDLY 142128.3 47055.1 3.020 0.002569 **
FREEHOLD 300646.5 77296.5 3.890 0.000105 ***
LEASEHOLD_99YR -77137.4 77570.9 -0.994 0.320192
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Residual standard error: 755800 on 1416 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.652, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6474
F-statistic: 139.6 on 19 and 1416 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-164 Model Assessment: olsrr method
In this section, we introduce the olsrr R package, designed for OLS regression. It offers useful methods for improving multiple linear regression models, including:
comprehensive regression output
residual diagnostics
influence measures
heteroskedasticity tests
model fit assessment
variable contribution and selection procedures.
4.1 Generating tidy linear regression report
ols_regress(condo_mlr) Model Summary
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
R 0.807 RMSE 750537.537
R-Squared 0.652 MSE 571262902261.223
Adj. R-Squared 0.647 Coef. Var 43.160
Pred R-Squared 0.637 AIC 42971.173
MAE 412117.987 SBC 43081.835
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
RMSE: Root Mean Square Error
MSE: Mean Square Error
MAE: Mean Absolute Error
AIC: Akaike Information Criteria
SBC: Schwarz Bayesian Criteria
ANOVA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sum of
Squares DF Mean Square F Sig.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regression 1.515738e+15 19 7.977571e+13 139.648 0.0000
Residual 8.089083e+14 1416 571262902261.223
Total 2.324647e+15 1435
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parameter Estimates
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
model Beta Std. Error Std. Beta t Sig lower upper
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 543071.420 136210.918 3.987 0.000 275874.535 810268.305
AREA_SQM 12688.669 370.119 0.579 34.283 0.000 11962.627 13414.710
AGE -24566.001 2766.041 -0.166 -8.881 0.000 -29991.980 -19140.022
PROX_CBD -78121.985 6791.377 -0.267 -11.503 0.000 -91444.227 -64799.744
PROX_CHILDCARE -333219.036 111020.303 -0.087 -3.001 0.003 -551000.984 -115437.089
PROX_ELDERLYCARE 170949.961 42110.748 0.083 4.060 0.000 88343.803 253556.120
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA 38507.622 12523.661 0.059 3.075 0.002 13940.700 63074.545
PROX_HAWKER_MARKET 23801.197 29299.923 0.019 0.812 0.417 -33674.725 81277.120
PROX_KINDERGARTEN 144097.972 82738.669 0.030 1.742 0.082 -18205.570 306401.514
PROX_MRT -322775.874 58528.079 -0.123 -5.515 0.000 -437586.937 -207964.811
PROX_PARK 564487.876 66563.011 0.148 8.481 0.000 433915.162 695060.590
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH 186170.524 65515.193 0.072 2.842 0.005 57653.253 314687.795
PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH -477.073 20597.972 -0.001 -0.023 0.982 -40882.894 39928.747
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL -207721.520 42855.500 -0.109 -4.847 0.000 -291788.613 -123654.427
PROX_SUPERMARKET -48074.679 77145.257 -0.012 -0.623 0.533 -199405.956 103256.599
PROX_BUS_STOP 675755.044 138551.991 0.133 4.877 0.000 403965.817 947544.272
NO_Of_UNITS -216.180 90.302 -0.046 -2.394 0.017 -393.320 -39.040
FAMILY_FRIENDLY 142128.272 47055.082 0.056 3.020 0.003 49823.107 234433.438
FREEHOLD 300646.543 77296.529 0.117 3.890 0.000 149018.525 452274.561
LEASEHOLD_99YR -77137.375 77570.869 -0.030 -0.994 0.320 -229303.551 75028.801
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The output shows that the condo.mlr model can explain close to 65% of the variation in the price.
4.1.1 Multicollinearity
ols_vif_tol(condo_mlr) Variables Tolerance VIF
1 AREA_SQM 0.8601326 1.162611
2 AGE 0.7011585 1.426211
3 PROX_CBD 0.4575471 2.185567
4 PROX_CHILDCARE 0.2898233 3.450378
5 PROX_ELDERLYCARE 0.5922238 1.688551
6 PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA 0.6614081 1.511926
7 PROX_HAWKER_MARKET 0.4373874 2.286303
8 PROX_KINDERGARTEN 0.8356793 1.196631
9 PROX_MRT 0.4949877 2.020252
10 PROX_PARK 0.8015728 1.247547
11 PROX_PRIMARY_SCH 0.3823248 2.615577
12 PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH 0.4878620 2.049760
13 PROX_SHOPPING_MALL 0.4903052 2.039546
14 PROX_SUPERMARKET 0.6142127 1.628100
15 PROX_BUS_STOP 0.3311024 3.020213
16 NO_Of_UNITS 0.6543336 1.528272
17 FAMILY_FRIENDLY 0.7191719 1.390488
18 FREEHOLD 0.2728521 3.664990
19 LEASEHOLD_99YR 0.2645988 3.779307The result shows that no variable has VIF great than 5. Dummy variables will not affect the overall calibration a lot, that is why although FREEHOLD and LEASEHOLE_99YR have multicollinearity (as they are dummy variables derived from the same variable), their VIFs are still lower than 5.
4.1.2 Variable Selection
condo_fw_mlr = ols_step_forward_p(
condo_mlr,
p_val = 0.05,
details = FALSE)plot(condo_fw_mlr)
4.2 Visualize model parameters
ggcoefstats(condo_mlr,
sort = "ascending")Number of labels is greater than default palette color count.
• Select another color `palette` (and/or `package`).
4.3 Test for Non-linearity
In multiple linear regression, it’s essential to test the assumptions of linearity and additivity between the dependent and independent variables. The ols_plot_resid_fit() function from the olsrr package is used to perform this linearity assumption test as in below code chunk.
ols_plot_resid_fit(condo_fw_mlr$model)
The figure shows that most data points are scattered around the 0 line, indicating that the relationship between the dependent and independent variables is linear.
4.4 Test for Normality Assumption
The code chunk below uses ols_plot_resid_hist() of olsrr package to perform normality assumption test.
ols_plot_resid_hist(condo_fw_mlr$model)
The figure reveals that the residuals of the multiple linear regression model (i.e. condo_fw_mlr) resemble normal distribution.
If formal statistical test methods are preferred, the ols_test_normality() of olsrr package can be used as shown in the code chun below.
ols_test_normality(condo_fw_mlr$model)-----------------------------------------------
Test Statistic pvalue
-----------------------------------------------
Shapiro-Wilk 0.6856 0.0000
Kolmogorov-Smirnov 0.1366 0.0000
Cramer-von Mises 121.0768 0.0000
Anderson-Darling 67.9551 0.0000
-----------------------------------------------As the p-values of all 4 test are smaller than 0.05, we can reject the null hypothesis that the model resembles normal distribution and infer that the residuals are not normally distributed.
5 Testing for Spatial Autocorrelation
Since our hedonic model uses geographically referenced attributes, it’s essential to visualize the residuals of the model.
First, we export the residuals of the hedonic pricing model and save it as a data frame.
mlr_output = as.data.frame(condo_fw_mlr$model$residuals) |>
rename('FW_MLR_RES' = 'condo_fw_mlr$model$residuals')Next we join the newly created data frame with condo_resale_sf object.
condo_resale_sf = cbind(condo_resale.sf,
mlr_output$FW_MLR_RES) |>
rename('MLR_RES' = 'mlr_output.FW_MLR_RES')Next we use tmap to display the distribution of the residuals on an interactive map.
tmap_mode("view")tmap mode set to interactive viewingtm_shape(mpsz) +
tmap_options(check.and.fix = TRUE) + # to fix the issue in the mpsz layer
tm_polygons(alpha = 0.4) +
tm_shape(condo_resale_sf) +
tm_dots(col = "MLR_RES",
alpha = 0.6,
style = "quantile")Warning: The shape mpsz is invalid (after reprojection). See sf::st_is_validVariable(s) "MLR_RES" contains positive and negative values, so midpoint is set to 0. Set midpoint = NA to show the full spectrum of the color palette.tmap_mode("plot")tmap mode set to plottingThe map shows some high value clusters around the central region.
5.1 Spatial stationary test
The Moran’s I test will be performed to confirm our observations with the following hypothesis:
Ho: The residuals are randomly distributed (also known as spatial stationary).
H1: The residuals are spatially non-stationary.
First, we compute the adaptive distance-based weight matrix using st_knn() and st_weights() function of sfdep.
condo_resale_sf = condo_resale_sf |>
mutate(nb = st_knn(geometry, k=6,
longlat = FALSE),
wt = st_weights(nb,
style = "W"),
.before = 1)Next, global_moran_perm() of sfdep is used to perform global Moran permutation test.
set.seed(1234)
global_moran_perm(condo_resale_sf$MLR_RES,
condo_resale_sf$nb,
condo_resale_sf$wt,
alternative = "two.sided",
nsim = 99)
Monte-Carlo simulation of Moran I
data: x
weights: listw
number of simulations + 1: 100
statistic = 0.32254, observed rank = 100, p-value < 2.2e-16
alternative hypothesis: two.sidedAs the p-value is smaller than 0.05, we can reject the null hypothesis that the residuals are randomly distributed. Since the Moran I’s statistic = 0.32254 > 0, we can infer that the residuals resemble cluster distribution.
6 Building Hedonic Pricing Models using GWmodel
In this section, we explore how to model hedonic pricing using geographically weighted regression model. Two spatial weights will be used: fixed and adaptive bandwidth schemes.
6.1 Build Fixed Bandwidth GWR model
In the code chunk below, the bw.gwr() function from the GWModel package is used to determine the optimal fixed bandwidth for the model. The adaptive argument is set to FALSE, indicating that we are computing the fixed bandwidth.
There are two approaches to determine the stopping rule: the CV cross-validation approach and the AIC corrected (AICc) approach. We will define the stopping rule using the approach argument.
bw_fixed <- bw.gwr(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE +
PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE +
PROX_ELDERLYCARE + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA +
PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH +
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_BUS_STOP +
NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD,
data=condo_resale_sf,
approach="CV",
kernel="gaussian",
adaptive=FALSE,
longlat=FALSE)Fixed bandwidth: 17660.96 CV score: 8.259118e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 10917.26 CV score: 7.970454e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 6749.419 CV score: 7.273273e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 4173.553 CV score: 6.300006e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 2581.58 CV score: 5.404958e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 1597.687 CV score: 4.857515e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 989.6077 CV score: 4.722431e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 613.7939 CV score: 1.378294e+16
Fixed bandwidth: 1221.873 CV score: 4.778717e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 846.0596 CV score: 4.791629e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 1078.325 CV score: 4.751406e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 934.7772 CV score: 4.72518e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 1023.495 CV score: 4.730305e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 968.6643 CV score: 4.721317e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 955.7206 CV score: 4.722072e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 976.6639 CV score: 4.721387e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 963.7202 CV score: 4.721484e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.7199 CV score: 4.721293e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 973.6083 CV score: 4.721309e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 970.5527 CV score: 4.721295e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 972.4412 CV score: 4.721296e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.2741 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 970.9985 CV score: 4.721293e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.4443 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.5496 CV score: 4.721293e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3793 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3391 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3143 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3545 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3296 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.345 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3355 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3413 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3377 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.34 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3405 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3408 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3403 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3406 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3404 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3405 CV score: 4.721292e+14
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3405 CV score: 4.721292e+14 The result shows that the recommended bandwith is 971.3405 metres.
6.1.1 GWModel method - fixed bandwidth
The code chunk below is uised to calibrate the gwr model using fixed bandwidth and gaussian kernel.
gwr_fixed <- gwr.basic(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM +
AGE + PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE +
PROX_ELDERLYCARE +PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA +
PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH +
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_BUS_STOP +
NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD,
data=condo_resale_sf,
bw=bw_fixed,
kernel = 'gaussian',
longlat = FALSE)The output is saved in a list of class gwrm. The code below displays the model output.
gwr_fixed ***********************************************************************
* Package GWmodel *
***********************************************************************
Program starts at: 2024-10-15 11:11:40.416682
Call:
gwr.basic(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + PROX_CBD +
PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA +
PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL +
PROX_BUS_STOP + NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD,
data = condo_resale_sf, bw = bw_fixed, kernel = "gaussian",
longlat = FALSE)
Dependent (y) variable: SELLING_PRICE
Independent variables: AREA_SQM AGE PROX_CBD PROX_CHILDCARE PROX_ELDERLYCARE PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA PROX_MRT PROX_PARK PROX_PRIMARY_SCH PROX_SHOPPING_MALL PROX_BUS_STOP NO_Of_UNITS FAMILY_FRIENDLY FREEHOLD
Number of data points: 1436
***********************************************************************
* Results of Global Regression *
***********************************************************************
Call:
lm(formula = formula, data = data)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-3470778 -298119 -23481 248917 12234210
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 527633.22 108183.22 4.877 1.20e-06 ***
AREA_SQM 12777.52 367.48 34.771 < 2e-16 ***
AGE -24687.74 2754.84 -8.962 < 2e-16 ***
PROX_CBD -77131.32 5763.12 -13.384 < 2e-16 ***
PROX_CHILDCARE -318472.75 107959.51 -2.950 0.003231 **
PROX_ELDERLYCARE 185575.62 39901.86 4.651 3.61e-06 ***
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA 39163.25 11754.83 3.332 0.000885 ***
PROX_MRT -294745.11 56916.37 -5.179 2.56e-07 ***
PROX_PARK 570504.81 65507.03 8.709 < 2e-16 ***
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH 159856.14 60234.60 2.654 0.008046 **
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL -220947.25 36561.83 -6.043 1.93e-09 ***
PROX_BUS_STOP 682482.22 134513.24 5.074 4.42e-07 ***
NO_Of_UNITS -245.48 87.95 -2.791 0.005321 **
FAMILY_FRIENDLY 146307.58 46893.02 3.120 0.001845 **
FREEHOLD 350599.81 48506.48 7.228 7.98e-13 ***
---Significance stars
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Residual standard error: 756000 on 1421 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.6507
Adjusted R-squared: 0.6472
F-statistic: 189.1 on 14 and 1421 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
***Extra Diagnostic information
Residual sum of squares: 8.120609e+14
Sigma(hat): 752522.9
AIC: 42966.76
AICc: 42967.14
BIC: 41731.39
***********************************************************************
* Results of Geographically Weighted Regression *
***********************************************************************
*********************Model calibration information*********************
Kernel function: gaussian
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3405
Regression points: the same locations as observations are used.
Distance metric: Euclidean distance metric is used.
****************Summary of GWR coefficient estimates:******************
Min. 1st Qu. Median 3rd Qu.
Intercept -3.5988e+07 -5.1998e+05 7.6780e+05 1.7412e+06
AREA_SQM 1.0003e+03 5.2758e+03 7.4740e+03 1.2301e+04
AGE -1.3475e+05 -2.0813e+04 -8.6260e+03 -3.7784e+03
PROX_CBD -7.7047e+07 -2.3608e+05 -8.3600e+04 3.4646e+04
PROX_CHILDCARE -6.0097e+06 -3.3667e+05 -9.7425e+04 2.9007e+05
PROX_ELDERLYCARE -3.5000e+06 -1.5970e+05 3.1971e+04 1.9577e+05
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA -3.0170e+06 -8.2013e+04 7.0749e+04 2.2612e+05
PROX_MRT -3.5282e+06 -6.5836e+05 -1.8833e+05 3.6922e+04
PROX_PARK -1.2062e+06 -2.1732e+05 3.5383e+04 4.1335e+05
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH -2.2695e+07 -1.7066e+05 4.8472e+04 5.1555e+05
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL -7.2585e+06 -1.6684e+05 -1.0517e+04 1.5923e+05
PROX_BUS_STOP -1.4676e+06 -4.5207e+04 3.7601e+05 1.1664e+06
NO_Of_UNITS -1.3170e+03 -2.4822e+02 -3.0846e+01 2.5496e+02
FAMILY_FRIENDLY -2.2749e+06 -1.1140e+05 7.6214e+03 1.6107e+05
FREEHOLD -9.2067e+06 3.8073e+04 1.5169e+05 3.7528e+05
Max.
Intercept 112793548
AREA_SQM 21575
AGE 434201
PROX_CBD 2704596
PROX_CHILDCARE 1654087
PROX_ELDERLYCARE 38867814
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA 78515730
PROX_MRT 3124316
PROX_PARK 18122425
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH 4637503
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL 1529952
PROX_BUS_STOP 11342182
NO_Of_UNITS 12907
FAMILY_FRIENDLY 1720744
FREEHOLD 6073636
************************Diagnostic information*************************
Number of data points: 1436
Effective number of parameters (2trace(S) - trace(S'S)): 438.3804
Effective degrees of freedom (n-2trace(S) + trace(S'S)): 997.6196
AICc (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002, p. 61, eq 2.33): 42263.61
AIC (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002,GWR p. 96, eq. 4.22): 41632.36
BIC (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002,GWR p. 61, eq. 2.34): 42515.71
Residual sum of squares: 2.53407e+14
R-square value: 0.8909912
Adjusted R-square value: 0.8430417
***********************************************************************
Program stops at: 2024-10-15 11:11:41.962001 The output shows that the adjust R-square improve quite a lot to 84.3% compared to the global model (64.7%). The AICc of the gwr is 42263.61, which is also significantly smaller than the globel multiple linear regression model of 42967.1.
6.2 Build adaptive bandwith GWR model
In this section, we will calibrate the gwr-based hedonic pricing model using adaptive bandwidth approach.
6.2.1 Compute the adaptive bandwidth
Similar to the earlier section, we first use bw.gwr() to determine the recommended data point to use.
The code chunk used look very similar to the one used to compute the fixed bandwidth except the adaptive argument has changed to TRUE.
bw_adaptive <- bw.gwr(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE +
PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE +
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK +
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_BUS_STOP +
NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD,
data=condo_resale_sf,
approach="CV",
kernel="gaussian",
adaptive=TRUE,
longlat=FALSE)Adaptive bandwidth: 895 CV score: 7.952401e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 561 CV score: 7.667364e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 354 CV score: 6.953454e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 226 CV score: 6.15223e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 147 CV score: 5.674373e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 98 CV score: 5.426745e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 68 CV score: 5.168117e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 49 CV score: 4.859631e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 37 CV score: 4.646518e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 30 CV score: 4.422088e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 25 CV score: 4.430816e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 32 CV score: 4.505602e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 27 CV score: 4.462172e+14
Adaptive bandwidth: 30 CV score: 4.422088e+14 The result shows that 30 is the recommended data points to be used.
6.2.2 Construct the adaptive bandwidth gwr model
Now, we can calibrate the gwr-based hedonic pricing model using adaptive bandwidth and gaussian kernel as shown in the code chunk below.
gwr_adaptive <- gwr.basic(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE +
PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE +
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK +
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_BUS_STOP +
NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD,
data=condo_resale_sf,
bw=bw_adaptive,
kernel = 'gaussian',
adaptive=TRUE,
longlat = FALSE)The code below displays the model output.
gwr_adaptive ***********************************************************************
* Package GWmodel *
***********************************************************************
Program starts at: 2024-10-15 11:11:49.82608
Call:
gwr.basic(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + PROX_CBD +
PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA +
PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL +
PROX_BUS_STOP + NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD,
data = condo_resale_sf, bw = bw_adaptive, kernel = "gaussian",
adaptive = TRUE, longlat = FALSE)
Dependent (y) variable: SELLING_PRICE
Independent variables: AREA_SQM AGE PROX_CBD PROX_CHILDCARE PROX_ELDERLYCARE PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA PROX_MRT PROX_PARK PROX_PRIMARY_SCH PROX_SHOPPING_MALL PROX_BUS_STOP NO_Of_UNITS FAMILY_FRIENDLY FREEHOLD
Number of data points: 1436
***********************************************************************
* Results of Global Regression *
***********************************************************************
Call:
lm(formula = formula, data = data)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-3470778 -298119 -23481 248917 12234210
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 527633.22 108183.22 4.877 1.20e-06 ***
AREA_SQM 12777.52 367.48 34.771 < 2e-16 ***
AGE -24687.74 2754.84 -8.962 < 2e-16 ***
PROX_CBD -77131.32 5763.12 -13.384 < 2e-16 ***
PROX_CHILDCARE -318472.75 107959.51 -2.950 0.003231 **
PROX_ELDERLYCARE 185575.62 39901.86 4.651 3.61e-06 ***
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA 39163.25 11754.83 3.332 0.000885 ***
PROX_MRT -294745.11 56916.37 -5.179 2.56e-07 ***
PROX_PARK 570504.81 65507.03 8.709 < 2e-16 ***
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH 159856.14 60234.60 2.654 0.008046 **
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL -220947.25 36561.83 -6.043 1.93e-09 ***
PROX_BUS_STOP 682482.22 134513.24 5.074 4.42e-07 ***
NO_Of_UNITS -245.48 87.95 -2.791 0.005321 **
FAMILY_FRIENDLY 146307.58 46893.02 3.120 0.001845 **
FREEHOLD 350599.81 48506.48 7.228 7.98e-13 ***
---Significance stars
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Residual standard error: 756000 on 1421 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.6507
Adjusted R-squared: 0.6472
F-statistic: 189.1 on 14 and 1421 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
***Extra Diagnostic information
Residual sum of squares: 8.120609e+14
Sigma(hat): 752522.9
AIC: 42966.76
AICc: 42967.14
BIC: 41731.39
***********************************************************************
* Results of Geographically Weighted Regression *
***********************************************************************
*********************Model calibration information*********************
Kernel function: gaussian
Adaptive bandwidth: 30 (number of nearest neighbours)
Regression points: the same locations as observations are used.
Distance metric: Euclidean distance metric is used.
****************Summary of GWR coefficient estimates:******************
Min. 1st Qu. Median 3rd Qu.
Intercept -1.3487e+08 -2.4669e+05 7.7928e+05 1.6194e+06
AREA_SQM 3.3188e+03 5.6285e+03 7.7825e+03 1.2738e+04
AGE -9.6746e+04 -2.9288e+04 -1.4043e+04 -5.6119e+03
PROX_CBD -2.5330e+06 -1.6256e+05 -7.7242e+04 2.6624e+03
PROX_CHILDCARE -1.2790e+06 -2.0175e+05 8.7158e+03 3.7778e+05
PROX_ELDERLYCARE -1.6212e+06 -9.2050e+04 6.1029e+04 2.8184e+05
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA -7.2686e+06 -3.0350e+04 4.5869e+04 2.4613e+05
PROX_MRT -4.3781e+07 -6.7282e+05 -2.2115e+05 -7.4593e+04
PROX_PARK -2.9020e+06 -1.6782e+05 1.1601e+05 4.6572e+05
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH -8.6418e+05 -1.6627e+05 -7.7853e+03 4.3222e+05
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL -1.8272e+06 -1.3175e+05 -1.4049e+04 1.3799e+05
PROX_BUS_STOP -2.0579e+06 -7.1461e+04 4.1104e+05 1.2071e+06
NO_Of_UNITS -2.1993e+03 -2.3685e+02 -3.4699e+01 1.1657e+02
FAMILY_FRIENDLY -5.9879e+05 -5.0927e+04 2.6173e+04 2.2481e+05
FREEHOLD -1.6340e+05 4.0765e+04 1.9023e+05 3.7960e+05
Max.
Intercept 18758355
AREA_SQM 23064
AGE 13303
PROX_CBD 11346650
PROX_CHILDCARE 2892127
PROX_ELDERLYCARE 2465671
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA 7384059
PROX_MRT 1186242
PROX_PARK 2588497
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH 3381462
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL 38038564
PROX_BUS_STOP 12081592
NO_Of_UNITS 1010
FAMILY_FRIENDLY 2072414
FREEHOLD 1813995
************************Diagnostic information*************************
Number of data points: 1436
Effective number of parameters (2trace(S) - trace(S'S)): 350.3088
Effective degrees of freedom (n-2trace(S) + trace(S'S)): 1085.691
AICc (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002, p. 61, eq 2.33): 41982.22
AIC (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002,GWR p. 96, eq. 4.22): 41546.74
BIC (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002,GWR p. 61, eq. 2.34): 41914.08
Residual sum of squares: 2.528227e+14
R-square value: 0.8912425
Adjusted R-square value: 0.8561185
***********************************************************************
Program stops at: 2024-10-15 11:11:51.028385 The output shows that the AICc the adaptive distance gwr is 41982.22 which is even smaller than the AICc of the fixed distance gwr of 42263.61.
6.3 Visualize GWR Output
In addition to regression residuals, the output feature class table includes fields for observed and predicted yyy values, condition number, local R2, residuals, and coefficients with standard errors:
Condition Number: This diagnostic assesses local collinearity. High condition numbers (greater than 30) indicate strong local collinearity, leading to unstable results.
Local R2: Ranging from 0.0 to 1.0, these values reflect how well the local regression model fits the observed y values. Low R2 values suggest poor model performance. Mapping Local R2 can highlight areas where GWR predictions are strong or weak, potentially indicating missing important variables.
Predicted Values: These are the estimated y values computed by GWR.
Residuals: Calculated by subtracting fitted y values from observed y values. Standardized residuals should have a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one. A rendered map of standardized residuals can visually represent these values.
Coefficient Standard Error: This measures the reliability of each coefficient estimate. Smaller standard errors relative to the coefficient values indicate greater confidence, while larger standard errors may suggest local collinearity issues.
All these metrics are stored in a SpatialPointsDataFrame or SpatialPolygonsDataFrame object integrated with fit.points, GWR coefficient estimates, y values, predicted values, coefficient standard errors, and t-values in the “data” slot of an object called SDF of the output list.
6.4 Convert SDF into sf data.frame
To visualise the fields in SDF, we need to first covert it into sf data.frame using the code chunk below.
gwr_adaptive_output = as.data.frame(
gwr_adaptive$SDF) |>
select(-c(2:15))gwr_sf_adaptive = cbind(condo_resale_sf,
gwr_adaptive_output)Next , glimpse() is used to display the content of gwr_sf_adaptive sf data frame.
glimpse(gwr_sf_adaptive)Rows: 1,436
Columns: 63
$ nb <nb> <66, 77, 123, 238, 239, 343>, <21, 162, 163, 19…
$ wt <list> <0.1666667, 0.1666667, 0.1666667, 0.1666667, …
$ POSTCODE <dbl> 118635, 288420, 267833, 258380, 467169, 466472…
$ SELLING_PRICE <dbl> 3000000, 3880000, 3325000, 4250000, 1400000, 1…
$ AREA_SQM <dbl> 309, 290, 248, 127, 145, 139, 218, 141, 165, 1…
$ AGE <dbl> 30, 32, 33, 7, 28, 22, 24, 24, 27, 31, 17, 22,…
$ PROX_CBD <dbl> 7.941259, 6.609797, 6.898000, 4.038861, 11.783…
$ PROX_CHILDCARE <dbl> 0.16597932, 0.28027246, 0.42922669, 0.39473543…
$ PROX_ELDERLYCARE <dbl> 2.5198118, 1.9333338, 0.5021395, 1.9910316, 1.…
$ PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA <dbl> 6.618741, 7.505109, 6.463887, 4.906512, 6.4106…
$ PROX_HAWKER_MARKET <dbl> 1.76542207, 0.54507614, 0.37789301, 1.68259969…
$ PROX_KINDERGARTEN <dbl> 0.05835552, 0.61592412, 0.14120309, 0.38200076…
$ PROX_MRT <dbl> 0.5607188, 0.6584461, 0.3053433, 0.6910183, 0.…
$ PROX_PARK <dbl> 1.1710446, 0.1992269, 0.2779886, 0.9832843, 0.…
$ PROX_PRIMARY_SCH <dbl> 1.6340256, 0.9747834, 1.4715016, 1.4546324, 0.…
$ PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH <dbl> 3.3273195, 0.9747834, 1.4715016, 2.3006394, 0.…
$ PROX_SHOPPING_MALL <dbl> 2.2102717, 2.9374279, 1.2256850, 0.3525671, 1.…
$ PROX_SUPERMARKET <dbl> 0.9103958, 0.5900617, 0.4135583, 0.4162219, 0.…
$ PROX_BUS_STOP <dbl> 0.10336166, 0.28673408, 0.28504777, 0.29872340…
$ NO_Of_UNITS <dbl> 18, 20, 27, 30, 30, 31, 32, 32, 32, 32, 34, 34…
$ FAMILY_FRIENDLY <dbl> 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0…
$ FREEHOLD <dbl> 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1…
$ LEASEHOLD_99YR <dbl> 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0…
$ MLR_RES <dbl> -1489099.55, 415494.57, 194129.69, 1088992.71,…
$ Intercept <dbl> 2050011.67, 1633128.24, 3433608.17, 234358.91,…
$ y <dbl> 3000000, 3880000, 3325000, 4250000, 1400000, 1…
$ yhat <dbl> 2886531.8, 3466801.5, 3616527.2, 5435481.6, 13…
$ residual <dbl> 113468.16, 413198.52, -291527.20, -1185481.63,…
$ CV_Score <dbl> 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0…
$ Stud_residual <dbl> 0.38207013, 1.01433140, -0.83780678, -2.846146…
$ Intercept_SE <dbl> 516105.5, 488083.5, 963711.4, 444185.5, 211962…
$ AREA_SQM_SE <dbl> 823.2860, 825.2380, 988.2240, 617.4007, 1376.2…
$ AGE_SE <dbl> 5889.782, 6226.916, 6510.236, 6010.511, 8180.3…
$ PROX_CBD_SE <dbl> 37411.22, 23615.06, 56103.77, 469337.41, 41064…
$ PROX_CHILDCARE_SE <dbl> 319111.1, 299705.3, 349128.5, 304965.2, 698720…
$ PROX_ELDERLYCARE_SE <dbl> 120633.34, 84546.69, 129687.07, 127150.69, 327…
$ PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA_SE <dbl> 56207.39, 76956.50, 95774.60, 470762.12, 47433…
$ PROX_MRT_SE <dbl> 185181.3, 281133.9, 275483.7, 279877.1, 363830…
$ PROX_PARK_SE <dbl> 205499.6, 229358.7, 314124.3, 227249.4, 364580…
$ PROX_PRIMARY_SCH_SE <dbl> 152400.7, 165150.7, 196662.6, 240878.9, 249087…
$ PROX_SHOPPING_MALL_SE <dbl> 109268.8, 98906.8, 119913.3, 177104.1, 301032.…
$ PROX_BUS_STOP_SE <dbl> 600668.6, 410222.1, 464156.7, 562810.8, 740922…
$ NO_Of_UNITS_SE <dbl> 218.1258, 208.9410, 210.9828, 361.7767, 299.50…
$ FAMILY_FRIENDLY_SE <dbl> 131474.73, 114989.07, 146607.22, 108726.62, 16…
$ FREEHOLD_SE <dbl> 115954.0, 130110.0, 141031.5, 138239.1, 210641…
$ Intercept_TV <dbl> 3.9720784, 3.3460017, 3.5629010, 0.5276150, 1.…
$ AREA_SQM_TV <dbl> 11.614302, 20.087361, 13.247868, 33.577223, 4.…
$ AGE_TV <dbl> -1.6154474, -9.3441881, -4.1023685, -15.524301…
$ PROX_CBD_TV <dbl> -3.22582173, -6.32792021, -4.62353528, 5.17080…
$ PROX_CHILDCARE_TV <dbl> 1.000488185, 1.471786337, -0.344047555, 1.5766…
$ PROX_ELDERLYCARE_TV <dbl> -3.26126929, 3.84626245, 4.13191383, 2.4756745…
$ PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA_TV <dbl> -2.846248368, -1.848971738, -2.648105057, -5.6…
$ PROX_MRT_TV <dbl> -1.61864578, -8.92998600, -3.40075727, -7.2870…
$ PROX_PARK_TV <dbl> -0.83749312, 2.28192684, 0.66565951, -3.340617…
$ PROX_PRIMARY_SCH_TV <dbl> 1.59230221, 6.70194543, 2.90580089, 12.9836104…
$ PROX_SHOPPING_MALL_TV <dbl> 2.753588422, -0.886626400, -1.056869486, -0.16…
$ PROX_BUS_STOP_TV <dbl> 2.0154464, 4.4941192, 3.0419145, 12.8383775, 0…
$ NO_Of_UNITS_TV <dbl> 0.480589953, -1.380026395, -0.045279967, -0.44…
$ FAMILY_FRIENDLY_TV <dbl> -0.06902748, 2.69655779, 0.04058290, 14.312764…
$ FREEHOLD_TV <dbl> 2.6213469, 3.0452799, 1.1970499, 8.7711485, 1.…
$ Local_R2 <dbl> 0.8846744, 0.8899773, 0.8947007, 0.9073605, 0.…
$ geometry <POINT [m]> POINT (22085.12 29951.54), POINT (25656.…
$ geometry.1 <POINT [m]> POINT (22085.12 29951.54), POINT (25656.…summary(gwr_adaptive$SDF$yhat) Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
171347 1102001 1385528 1751842 1982307 13887901 6.5 Visualize Local R2
The code chunk below creates an interactive point symbol map.
tmap_mode("view")tmap mode set to interactive viewingtmap_options(check.and.fix = TRUE)
tm_shape(mpsz)+
tm_polygons(alpha = 0.1) +
tm_shape(gwr_sf_adaptive) +
tm_dots(col = "Local_R2",
border.col = "gray60",
border.lwd = 1) +
tm_view(set.zoom.limits = c(11,14))Warning: The shape mpsz is invalid (after reprojection). See sf::st_is_validtmap_mode('plot')tmap mode set to plotting6.6 Visualize coefficient estimates
The code chunks below creates an interactive point symbol map.
tmap_options(check.and.fix = TRUE)
tmap_mode("view")tmap mode set to interactive viewingAREA_SQM_SE <- tm_shape(mpsz)+
tm_polygons(alpha = 0.1) +
tm_shape(gwr_sf_adaptive) +
tm_dots(col = "AREA_SQM_SE",
border.col = "gray60",
border.lwd = 1) +
tm_view(set.zoom.limits = c(11,14))
AREA_SQM_TV <- tm_shape(mpsz)+
tm_polygons(alpha = 0.1) +
tm_shape(gwr_sf_adaptive) +
tm_dots(col = "AREA_SQM_TV",
border.col = "gray60",
border.lwd = 1) +
tm_view(set.zoom.limits = c(11,14))
tmap_arrange(AREA_SQM_SE, AREA_SQM_TV,
asp=1, ncol=2,
sync = TRUE)Warning: The shape mpsz is invalid (after reprojection). See sf::st_is_valid
Warning: The shape mpsz is invalid (after reprojection). See sf::st_is_validtmap_mode('plot')tmap mode set to plotting6.6.1 By URA Planning Region
tm_shape(mpsz[mpsz$REGION_N=="CENTRAL REGION", ])+
tm_polygons()+
tm_shape(gwr_sf_adaptive) +
tm_bubbles(col = "Local_R2",
size = 0.15,
border.col = "gray60",
border.lwd = 1)Warning: The shape mpsz[mpsz$REGION_N == "CENTRAL REGION", ] is invalid. See
sf::st_is_valid